The Concentric Circle Approach to Signal-Based GTM: Why Your Warmest Audiences Are Your Biggest Opportunity

Here's what most AI-native companies get wrong about signal-based GTM.

They treat every signal the same way. Someone gets promoted? Send a templated "Congrats on the new role" message. Company raises funding? Queue up the pitch about how you can help them scale.

It's lazy. And it doesn't work.

The fundamental problem isn't the signals themselves—it's that companies don't understand how to layer them with actual relevance. They're using signals as an excuse to pitch, not as a targeting filter to deliver value.

Let me show you a better way.

The Concentric Circle Framework: Start Where You Already Have Heat

Think of your GTM motion as concentric circles radiating outward from your warmest audiences.

The center? Your existing customers and recently churned accounts. These are the people who already understand your value, already know your brand, and already have context for what you do.

The next ring out? Former customers who've moved to new companies, existing customers' colleagues who've taken new roles elsewhere, and people in your target accounts who've engaged with your content or attended your events.

The outer rings? Cold prospects who match your ICP but have no relationship with you yet.

Most companies do this backwards. They focus all their energy on the cold outer rings because that's where the "growth" is. But the warmest circles have the highest conversion rates, shortest sales cycles, and best unit economics.

Why would you ignore that?

The answer is usually because they don't have a systematic way to identify and act on signals within those warm circles. They're too busy chasing cold leads to notice the warm opportunities right in front of them.

What Actually Qualifies as a Signal?

Before we go further, let's define what we mean by a signal.

A signal is an observable change or event that indicates increased likelihood of buying intent, need, or receptiveness.

Not all signals are created equal. Some are validated through actual customer behavior and conversion data. Others are assumptions that sound logical but don't actually correlate with buying behavior.

Here are signals that consistently show up in high-performing GTM motions:

Validated Signals:

• Existing customer expands team in your product's functional area
• Ex-customer takes a leadership role at a company matching your ICP
• Target account hires a champion from an existing customer
• Company raises funding (but only if your existing customers cite funding as a buying trigger)
• Leadership change in the functional area you serve
• Competitor pricing change that creates an opening
• Product launch that creates a new use case for your solution
• Tech stack changes that indicate shifting priorities

Assumed Signals (Test These):

• Generic job changes
• Company growth milestones
• Industry awards
• Conference attendance
• Content downloads

The difference? Validated signals come from analyzing your actual customer journey data. When you interview customers and ask "What changed that made you start looking for a solution like ours?" you'll hear patterns. Those patterns are your signals.

Assumed signals are things that sound like they should matter but you haven't validated through actual customer data.

Most companies skip the validation step and jump straight to acting on assumed signals. That's why their signal-based plays feel like spam.

The Critical Mistake: Using Signals as the Message

Here's where most teams go wrong.

They see a signal—say, someone gets promoted to VP of Marketing—and they immediately craft a message around that signal:

"Hey [Name], I saw you just got promoted to VP of Marketing at [Company]. Congrats! I wanted to reach out because..."

Stop. Delete that draft.

The signal is not the message. The signal is the targeting filter.

Think about it from the recipient's perspective. They've just taken on a massive new role. They're drowning in congratulations messages from vendors trying to sell them something. Your "I saw you got promoted" message looks exactly like the other 47 messages in their inbox.

You're pitch-slapping them with extra steps.

Instead, the signal tells you who to target and when. The message should deliver actual value based on what you know about their new context.

Here's the difference:

Bad (Signal as Message):

"Saw you joined [Company] as Head of Sales. Congrats! We help sales teams like yours..."

Good (Signal as Filter):

"Most sales leaders I talk to at Series B companies are dealing with [specific challenge you know they face]. I wrote this guide on [relevant topic] based on conversations with 50+ sales leaders at similar-stage companies. Thought it might be useful as you're ramping up."

See the difference? The signal (new role at Series B company) filtered them into your targeting. The message delivered value based on what you know about people in that context.

No mention of the signal. No fake personalization. Just relevance.

Circle 1: Existing Customers (The Center)

Your existing customers are the warmest audience you have. They already understand your value proposition, they've already experienced your product, and they already trust you enough to give you money.

So why do most companies treat them like they're on autopilot?

The signals that matter most with existing customers are expansion signals:

Team expansion in your product's functional area. If you serve marketing teams and your customer just posted a job for two new demand gen roles, that's a signal they're scaling the function your product supports. They're going to need more seats, more features, or more sophisticated use cases.

But don't pitch them on expansion. Ask them about their growth plans. Understand what's driving the hiring. Share insights from other customers who've scaled similar teams. Make yourself useful in their expansion, and the commercial conversation becomes natural.

New executive hires who don't know you. Your champion might love you, but the new CMO who just joined has no relationship with you. That's a signal to rebuild the relationship at a new level, not to pitch. Introduce yourself, share relevant insights, and make sure they understand the value you're delivering to their team. Product launches or new initiatives. When your customer launches a new product line, enters a new market, or kicks off a major initiative, that's a signal that their needs might be evolving. It's an opportunity to proactively think about how you can support that evolution.

The key with existing customers is that you're not trying to convince them of anything. You're trying to stay relevant and valuable as their context changes.

Circle 2: Churned Customers (Still Warm)

Churned customers are criminally underutilized.

Most companies write them off the moment they cancel. But churned customers are still warm. They know your product, they understand your value proposition, and they left for a specific reason.

That reason is your signal.

If they churned because of price, and they just raised a Series B, that's a signal worth acting on. If they churned because they didn't have the team to implement properly, and they just hired a Head of Ops, that's a signal.

But again—don't mention the signal in your message.

Instead, reach out with something genuinely valuable. Share a relevant insight, introduce them to a useful connection, or point them to a resource that helps with a challenge you know they're facing.

The goal isn't to win them back immediately. It's to stay present and valuable so that when their context changes enough that your solution makes sense again, you're the obvious call.

One of the best signal-based plays I've seen was from a SaaS company that tracked when churned customers' team size crossed certain thresholds. Small teams had churned because the product was overkill. But when those companies grew to 50+ employees, the original friction point disappeared. The company reached out not with a pitch, but with insights about scaling challenges at that stage. 30% of those conversations turned into re-engaged opportunities.

Circle 3: Ex-Customers in New Roles (Warming Up)

This is one of the highest-converting signal-based plays, and most companies completely miss it.

When someone who used your product at a previous company takes a leadership role at a new company in your ICP, they're a warm lead. They already know your product. They already understand the value. And if they had a good experience, they're predisposed to consider you again.

But—and this is critical—they're also getting hammered with vendor pitches because everyone can see they just changed jobs.

So don't be another pitch in their inbox.

The play here is to be genuinely helpful during their transition. Share insights about building the function they're now leading. Introduce them to other leaders in similar roles. Send them content that helps them think through their first 90 days.

Make no mention of your product.

The message should be: "I know you from [previous company], I know you're taking on this new challenge, and I thought this might be useful as you're thinking through your approach."

If they had a good experience with you before, they'll remember. And when they're ready to evaluate solutions, you'll be top of mind—not because you pitched them, but because you were useful when everyone else was selling.

Circle 4: Warm Prospects with Existing Relationships (Getting Warmer)

These are people at target accounts who've engaged with you in some way but aren't customers yet. Maybe they've downloaded content, attended a webinar, or engaged with your posts on LinkedIn. Maybe they're colleagues of existing customers. Maybe they've been in conversations that didn't close but stayed warm.

The signals that matter here are changes in their context that might make your solution more relevant:

Leadership changes. New CMO joins a company where you have warm relationships on the marketing team. That's a signal that priorities might shift and there might be an opening to reevaluate vendors. Funding announcements. But only if your customer data shows that funding actually correlates with buying behavior. For some products, it does. For others, it's noise. Team expansion. Similar to existing customers—if they're hiring in the function you serve, they're likely experiencing pain in that area. Competitor changes. If a competitor raises prices, gets acquired, or has a public product issue, that creates an opening. But don't be opportunistic about it. The play is to share insights about how companies navigate transitions away from that competitor, not to trash-talk.

The key with warm prospects is that you already have some relationship capital. Don't burn it by being overly sales-y when a signal appears. Use the signal as a reason to provide value, not as an excuse to pitch.

Circle 5: Cold Prospects (Coldest, But Still Strategic)

This is where most companies start, and it's the hardest circle to crack.

Cold prospects don't know you, don't trust you, and are getting pitched by dozens of your competitors. Signals matter here, but they matter differently than in the warm circles.

With cold prospects, you need multiple signals to layer together before you reach out. One signal—like a funding announcement—isn't enough. But funding + new leadership hire + team expansion + recent product launch? That's a pattern that indicates real change and potential need.

The message still can't mention the signals, though. It needs to demonstrate that you understand their context and have something genuinely valuable to offer.

Here's what works:

Pattern recognition. "I've worked with three other Series B companies in [industry] over the past year, and they all ran into [specific challenge] around this stage. I wrote up what worked for them in case it's useful." Relevant insight. "Your recent product launch into [market] is interesting. Most companies I talk to who make that move underestimate [specific challenge]. Here's what I've seen work." Mutual connection. "I was talking to [mutual connection] about [relevant topic], and they mentioned you're thinking about [challenge]. I've helped a few companies work through similar problems—happy to share what I learned if it's useful."

Notice that none of these mention the signals directly. The signals got them into your targeting, but the message is about value and relevance.

How to Actually Build This System

Knowing the framework is one thing. Building a system to execute it is another.

Here's the process:

Step 1: Validate Your Signals Through Customer Research

Don't assume you know what signals matter. Ask your customers.

Interview 20-30 recent customers and ask:

• What changed that made you start looking for a solution like ours?
• What was happening in your business at that time?
• What would have gotten our message in front of you earlier?

You'll hear patterns. Those patterns are your validated signals.

Maybe you'll hear "We just raised our Series B and needed to professionalize our marketing ops." That's a validated signal.

Maybe you'll hear "Our CMO left and the new one wanted to reevaluate all our vendors." That's a validated signal.

Maybe you'll hear "We tried to build something in-house and it failed." That's a validated signal.

Write down the actual language they use. Those are the insights you'll use in your messaging.

Step 2: Build Your Monitoring System

You need a way to systematically track these signals across your concentric circles.

For existing and churned customers, this means:

• Monitoring their LinkedIn company pages for new hires
• Tracking funding announcements
• Watching for leadership changes
• Monitoring their product launches and press releases

For ex-customers in new roles:

• Setting up alerts for job changes
• Tracking when they land at companies in your ICP

For warm and cold prospects:

• Using tools like Clearbit, ZoomInfo, or 6sense to track firmographic and technographic changes
• Monitoring competitor news and pricing changes
• Tracking hiring patterns in your target accounts

This doesn't have to be complicated. Start with LinkedIn alerts and Google alerts. Add sophistication as you validate what works.

Step 3: Layer Signals with Context

One signal rarely means much. Three signals that point in the same direction? That's worth acting on.

If a warm prospect gets a new CMO, that's one signal. If that same company also just raised funding and is hiring three new demand gen roles, now you have a pattern.

The layering is what separates signal-based GTM from spray-and-pray. You're not reaching out to everyone who gets promoted. You're reaching out to people who get promoted AND work at companies showing multiple signals of need AND match your ICP.

Step 4: Craft Value-First Messages

Remember: the signal is the filter, not the message.

Your message should deliver value based on what you know about their context:

• Share relevant insights from similar companies
• Offer introductions to useful connections
• Point them to resources that help with challenges you know they're facing
• Ask thoughtful questions that show you understand their world

Test different approaches and track what resonates. You'll find that some types of value work better with certain audiences or at certain stages.

Step 5: Measure and Optimize

Track your signal-based plays separately from your other GTM motions.

Measure:

• Response rate by circle (existing customers vs. cold prospects)
• Conversion rate by signal type
• Time to close by warmth of audience
• Message types that drive engagement

You'll quickly see which signals actually correlate with buying behavior and which are noise. Double down on what works. Kill what doesn't.

The Compounding Effect of Warm Circles

Here's what happens when you execute this framework well.

Your warmest circles—existing customers, churned customers, ex-customers in new roles—start generating consistent pipeline with high conversion rates and short sales cycles. This becomes your base revenue engine.

As you deliver value to warm prospects without pitching, some of them naturally convert into customers. They enter the center circle, where you continue delivering value and they become expansion opportunities or champions who refer others.

Ex-customers who you stayed valuable to eventually land at companies where your solution fits better. They become warm leads again. Some re-engage immediately. Others refer you to colleagues.

Even your cold prospect plays start working better because you're building a reputation in your market. People have heard of you. They've seen your content. They've heard from colleagues that you're helpful, not sales-y.

The circles start reinforcing each other.

But this only works if you resist the temptation to pitch-slap everyone the moment a signal appears.

The Meta-Insight: Signals Reveal Timing, Not Intent

The biggest mistake companies make with signal-based GTM is assuming that a signal equals buying intent.

It doesn't.

A signal reveals a change in context that might create need or receptiveness. But it doesn't mean the person is actively looking for a solution.

That's why leading with a pitch fails. You're forcing a commercial conversation before establishing relevance.

Instead, use signals to identify when someone's context has changed in a way that makes your insights valuable. Deliver that value. Build the relationship. Create trust.

The commercial conversation will happen naturally when the timing is right.

Start with Your Warmest Circle Tomorrow

If you take one thing from this article, make it this: Start with your warmest audiences.

Tomorrow, make a list of:

• Existing customers who've recently hired in your product's functional area
• Churned customers who've hit an inflection point that changes their fit
• Ex-customers who've taken new roles at target accounts

Pick five. Research their current context. Find something genuinely valuable to share with them—an insight, a connection, a resource.

Reach out with no pitch. Just value.

See what happens.

I'll bet you get better response rates from those five warm outreaches than you do from your next 50 cold emails.

That's the power of the concentric circle approach. You're not trying to convince strangers. You're nurturing relationships with people who already have context for who you are and what you do.

And when it works—when you deliver value consistently and build trust over time—those warm relationships become your most reliable source of pipeline, referrals, and revenue growth.

Stop chasing cold leads. Start with your warmest circles. The signals will guide you from there.